Property Crash Cycle – Introduction to Fred Harrison’s 18 Years
Is there a property crash every 18 years? Fred Harrison thinks so. In his book: Boom Bust, House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010, Harrison describes a cycle of 18 years. If he is right, we are headed towards a Depression by 2010, and it will be many years before those who bought at the peak will be back to even. This is the introduction to the cycle. Other videos look into historical prices in more detail. You can join the discussion on GlobalEdgeInvestors dotcom or on: Talk-View dotcom. Please visit, and tell us what you think of the video.
Video Rating: 4 / 5
The cooling the market has experienced in the last 9 months combined with a slowing economy means it’s plausible that house prices could drop by a third over the next three years.
Video Rating: 5 / 5
@BubbFromGEI
So it is best to buy in 2012 then? We are still dropping to the lowest point in 2012?
18 years is the average length of a contract in developed economies.
no error. you misuderstood.
the normal cycle is 14 years up, and 4 years down
Bruno Powroznik is back as brunopowroznikagain
Here the cycle is 18 years long. Why does the same period repeat? Could it be due to the relative positions of the earth, moom and sun, which take 18 years and 11 days? The other reference in these videos claims 14 years, presunably it is an error.
The Crash is Here / The Crash is Clear:
LONDON (Reuters) – House prices fell 1.9 percent this month alone, leaving it 10.5 percent cheaper than at the same time last year — the biggest decline since comparable records began in 1991.
The property market is now plummeting, after 10 years in which prices trebled, as banks hit by the credit crunch have tightened their lending criteria with many now requiring a 25 percent deposit for mortgages.
Harrison has just produced three videos of his own for his new “Renegade Economist” channel. He believes that mainstream economics is failing, and there is a better way to forecast economic changes, and to make policy. His track record shows that his voice is one worth listening to.
This is really good, I must read some of Fred Harrison’s work, thanks for making this introduction to the topic.
I like the blue background on the new Video better! This one remains a good introduction for those unfamiliar with Fred Harrison’s cycle work.
The next part (A closer look at the UK property cycle that started in 1994), is now up and available on YouTube. The third part will be coming shortly. I have switched to a blue background, so it will be easier to distinguish those parts from the introduction.
I am still hoping to film a visit to an Estate Agent, but am running out of time in London. Ideas for other projects, and links to the Videos of others are being accepted on GEI, and eventually on Talk-View dotcom, after its launch.
Nice work! But I’m not crazy about the dark background. Do you need to keep it on further videos. And where’s your own photo?
I clicked on Talk-View dotcom, and it took me to a Poll on GEI. Will you be doing a video on Estate Agents? I look forward to it.
Thnx for the comment, Laura. I did check that, actually, and the information I obtained was that the first edition came out in 2005, Perhaps there was a small title change.
For good orders sake, I think the correct name of the earlier book is Power in the Land, rather than Power of the Land, as I incorrectly said on the Video.. Parts 2 and 3 should be ready within a few days (I hope).
Another excellent video Dr Bubb keep up the good work!! I thought Boom Bust was originally written in 1999 and a revised edition published in 2005?
wage freezes wage cuts 25% deposit needed 3.5 times your salary no 6-7 and they say price will fall by a third lmao. we are talking about 60 to 70% drop yippee
HOW BAD THINGS MIGHT GET?
erm for everyone not sucked into the mire by these ridiculous loans so far and all under 18′s = 10 million people the fall in the amount we will owe these lazy parasites is a GREAT THING. i could think of nothing worse than living in bonded slavery. no wonder there is so much mental illness around. people are under collosal stress. thats ok tho as big pharma is there to take more cash from your pocket..don’t talk back to the boss or your DEAD? awful, why not say FU?
i hear u brother glad to see it.
Hang on!!,Even with the fall in house prices released today,12.5%,they are still 60% higher than in the year 2000.
Let them fall,essential workers,and first-time buyers need houses to.LIKE ME!!!!!!
thatchers housing policy coming home to roost. 50% drop hbos were lending up to 7 times income unsustainable. should mrs thatcher have allowed building societies turn to banks i thank her so much now maybe first time buys and the younger generation may get a house now. thank you thank you mrs thatcher
Capital have lost a pensiin fund I am involved with a fortune with bad investing. I am sceptical about anything they say!
50-60% falls are highly likely. Homes are highly overvalued and the only thing was supporting them was cheap credit which is gone for the long term.
50% fall with about 10% overcorrection on top.
over the long term your absolutely right, house prices will on average go up every year if you look at it over lets say a 20 year period, but over the next 2 years there will be a 15 to 30% drop in all house prices nation wide, yes some areas will fall far less than others but everywhere will have a significent fall. so in the short term yes you can lose alot of money in houses but in the long term they are a fantastic investment… we have some very difficult times ahead 2008 to 2010…..
I like cats and houses are nice
Reading the press, house prices in UK have gone down by half, so with in the next few weeks the prices will drop 101%
These two chaps do nothing to dispel the impression that economists are a dull lot. I think they managed 8 minutes without a real smile!
However, Ed Stansfield is very lucid and, if we take what he says as being quite cautious, the outlook for GB Plc looks a bit grim. Imagining that things could be worse than he suggests, and I do, we’ll be well-stuffed!